Brazil's January soy exports are below expectations, say traders

Some Brazilian traders claim that soybean exports for January will likely miss the?grain importers' association Anec?s forecast, released on Tuesday. Meanwhile,?Anec has said it is re-evaluating its estimate of?3.8 millions metric tons shipments this month.

Anec stated that its estimate of a monthly volume far exceeding the 1.1 millions tons shipped in January 2020 was based on schedules. It added that actual volumes will likely slow down 'in late January. The total could be closer to 3 million tons.

Anec stated that the bulk of Brazil's soybean exports this month were "planted in 2024" and "harvested in 2025". They added that bottlenecks in logistics may also have affected January's exports.

A trader who requested anonymity estimated that Brazil would only ship around 2,000,000 metric tons this month. This suggests that talk of an early harvest is overblown.

China, which is the largest soy importer in the world and Brazil's biggest buyer, have also increased purchases of U.S. beans since a trade truce was reached with Washington last October.

According to Brazilian government trade data, in the first three week of January, Brazil exported 1.307 millions tons of soy compared with?around 1 million during the same period in 2025.

A second trader stated that the market was prepared to ship quickly in anticipation of a soybean harvest early. "But harvest is proceeding at a normal rate, not ahead schedule, so shipments will likely be delayed until February."

Hedgepoint Global is an agribusiness consulting firm that estimates 3% of Brazil’s soy-planted area was harvested by last Friday. This compares to 1.1% the previous year. (Reporting and editing by Brad Haynes, Susan Fenton, and Ana Mano)

(source: Reuters)