Australia's resources outlook is delayed due to 'extreme volatility caused by the Iran war'
The Australian government's quarterly energy and resources outlook was delayed for the very first time due to the "extreme volatility", caused by the U.S./Israel war on Iran. This is making forecasts outdated, according to a spokesperson.
The delay comes as Australia's Government faces?growing demands for a windfall?tax on?liquefied?natural?gas export profits, while some miners are struggling to secure diesel supplies.
The Office of the Chief Economist publishes the Resources and Energy Quarterly, which includes three two-year forecasts of Australia's largest mining and energy exports and a macro-five-year outlook. The reports were originally due at the end March, but now will be released by the end of June.
The spokesperson for the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR), said that the five-year predictions on Australian energy and resource production and exports will be delayed until the end of June 2026. This is to give a better picture of the geopolitical and economic backdrop.
The publication covers Australia's historical, current, and expected export volumes and values of its major commodities, while also looking at broader?global drivers of demand, or new sources for demand.
The forecasts will be used to help prepare the federal budget due in May.
Canberra released its last REQ mid-December, which predicted that exports from mining and energy will fall by 5% in 2025-26 to A$369 ($260.48) billion. The following year they are expected to fall further to A$354 (260.48).
Over 75% of the nation's exports are tied to oil prices, usually with a 3- to 6-month lag. The remaining spot cargoes have also been sold at record prices. However, the cost of diesel has contributed to an increase in production costs for certain?miners.
Some groups have called for a tax of 25% on "super profits" from LNG because of the surge in revenues. The ABC reported that Australia's Treasury had been looking at a tax last month, but Canberra hasn't confirmed it.
The price of oil rose to a record high of 50% in March and dropped by almost $20 per barrel after President Trump announced a ceasefire for two weeks. Prices have since recovered, with renewed anxiety about the fragile peace agreement, Saudi Arabian supplies, and the largely frozen tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the Iran War broke out in late February, the government has faced increasing criticism for its energy security plans. This is due to the high dependence on imported refined fuels. Prices have risen and supplies have been disrupted. Helen Clark (reporting) and Kim Coghill (editing) are responsible for this article.
(source: Reuters)
