Analysis finds that China's CO2 emission hasn't increased in 18 months.

Carbon Brief's analysis found that China's carbon dioxide emission was flat on an annual basis in the third quarter. This extends a streak of 18 months with flat or declining emissions.

Lauri Myllyvirta, of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki, said that the trend started in March 2024 and could mean CO2 emissions will fall this year if there is no year-end spike.

Carbon Brief's previous analysis showed that CO2 production rose by 0.8% in 2024, following a rebound after the pandemic at the beginning of the year.

In September, the government pledged to cap carbon emissions in 2030, and by 2035 reduce them by 7-10% from this as-yet unidentified peak.

This was China's very first commitment to reduce its emissions. However, the level of reductions fell short of expectations. The EU climate commissioner described it as "disappointing".

China has an opportunity to take a more active role in this matter at the U.N. COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil that began on Monday.

The third quarter of 2025 saw flat emissions as a result of rising emissions from the chemical sector, which offset decreases or plateaus elsewhere.

The analysis showed that, despite a 6.1% increase in electricity demand, transport emissions dropped 5%, while power sector emissions remained flat.

Wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower generated electricity covered 90% of this increase in demand. Gas-fired power generation has also reduced coal's share.

The growth of the chemical industry, however, prevented overall emissions from declining. In January-September 2017, plastic production increased by 12%, mainly due to the surge in domestic demand in food delivery and online commerce.

The analysis stated that China also increased its domestic production of polyethylene - the most commonly used plastic - in response to the U.S. trade war.

To compensate for the drop in demand for transport fuels due to the widespread switch to electric vehicles, the government has encouraged refineries shift their production to chemicals. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Colleen howe)

(source: Reuters)