ADNOC's trading chief identifies August as a tipping point in oil prices

An executive from the 'Abu Dhabi state oil company' said that August could be a defining month for higher oil prices if the Iran War?supply crisis continues. He added that it may take up to one year for supply chains and flows to normalise. As long as there is uncertainty about peace, the Strait of Hormuz transit will be partial and below pre-war levels, said Philippe?Khoury. ADNOC executive vice president for Sales and Trading.

Khoury added that it would not be possible to return to the pre-war situation in a matter of weeks or months. A full return could take until mid-2027. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber stated last month that the full resumption of Hormuz flows would not be possible until at least the first quarter of 2027.

Khoury said that economies have shrunk demand and if this trend continues, the price could remain around $100 per barrel. If demand improves and the crisis continues, August may be the turning point for much higher prices.

He said it was not clear just how much more demand could shrink.

He said that prices are difficult to predict because of the way they are viewed today. (Reporting and writing by Robert Harvey, Yousef Saba; editing by Sharon Singleton & Jan Harvey).

(source: Reuters)