Monday, September 24, 2018

Oil Falls as OPEC Nears Deal to Raise Production

Posted by June 21, 2018

© Greg Blomberg / Adobe Stock

Oil prices fell on Thursday as crude exporters in OPEC appeared to be nearing a deal to increase production.

Benchmark Brent crude dropped $1.80 a barrel, or 2.4 percent, to a low of $72.94 before recovering a little to $73.30, down $1.44, by 1358 GMT. U.S. light crude was 71 cents lower at $65.00.

Brent reached a 3-1/2-year high above $80 a barrel last month but has fallen steadily in recent weeks as Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of OPEC, has signalled it intends to raise production to stabilise prices.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its biannual meeting in Vienna on Friday and is widely expected to agree to pump more, possibly supported by some other producers outside OPEC, including Russia.

Iran had been expected to oppose any rise in crude output, but it has now signalled it may support a small increase.

"We need to release supply to the market," Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters in Vienna. "How much oil do we need? ... around 1 million (barrels per day, bpd) probably."

Falih said the oil market had now rebalanced and his aim was to prevent a shortage of crude in future that could squeeze the market.

Harry Tchilinguirian, head of oil strategy at French bank BNP Paribas, told Reuters Global Oil Forum he expected OPEC and Russia to agree a compromise that would see a small increase in global oil production.

"It would seem that an aggregate increase in production for OPEC+ of between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd is the range that is being considered," Tchilinguirian said.

OPEC, together with other key producers including Russia, started withholding output in 2017 to prop up prices, but a tightening market has led to calls by consumers for more supplies.


Escalating Trade Dispute

Looming over all financial markets is an escalating trade dispute between the United States and its other major trading partners, particularly China.

Washington and Beijing have both threatened punitive tariffs on each other's exports, including U.S. crude oil.

China on Thursday cancelled a trip to West Virginia by executives from China Energy Investment Corp to discuss a planned $83.7 billion investment in the state and called Washington's behaviour "capricious".

In another escalation, India on Thursday joined China and the European Union by increasing duties on various commodities imported from the United States.

But oil prices have found some support from global demand, which has been increasing strongly this year.

U.S. refineries processed a seasonal record of 17.7 million bpd of crude oil last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Commercial U.S. crude inventories dropped by 5.9 million barrels in the week to June 15, to 426.53 million barrels <C-STK-T-EIA>, the EIA said.

By Christopher Johnson, Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore

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